Wednesday, January 9, 2008

To Michigan and beyond!

My Union's most recent President, John Carr has written his endorsement of Senator Obama at The Main Bang. John is very well written, widely read and highly respected by many, many people, this writer included. If our Union doesn't get on the Obama train, then we will! Oh, and we'll be bringing hundreds of our friends with us!

It's amazing to watch the media, pollsters, et. al. wring their hands during the New Hampshire Primary. I guess if it were my job to predict the outcome of an election and the result was tantamount to "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN", I'd be looking for answers too. It showed me how out of touch the media is with the American public and reality, but that's another story. Figures lie and liars figure and the fact remains that any sampling done before the ballots are cast is a wag. Sure, they get it right more often than not. It sure is fun to watch them squirm and spin when they get one wrong.

My personal opinion? Senator Clinton has widespread support of women over 40. This was a fact in Iowa and held true in New Hampshire. Many older women, like my Mother and Mother-in-law, refuse to disclose their vote to anyone, especially pollsters. This especially holds true in New England, where my wife's family is from. So congratulations to all of the New England Mothers and Grandmothers out there! You pulled the January surprise on the country!

Here are some numbers that are not only good for Senator Obama, but for the Democrats and the country (SOURCE: MSNBC)

  • 18% of the voters were in the 18-29 crowd, up from 14% four years ago. They overwhelmingly supported Senator Obama again. In the 18-24 group (11% of the voters), Obama garnered 60% of the vote.

  • 287,000 people voted in the Democratic Primary (57% of all voters), up from 218,000 in 2004 and 147,798 in 2000. 218000 voted in the Republican Primary, down from 237,000 (61% of voters) in 2000. This is significant, because Independent voters makeup 37% of the population of NH and 38% are registered Republicans. Clearly the Independent vote broke for the Democrats and for Obama.

  • 505,000 people voted last night in New Hampshire up from 385,000 in 2000 (the last election without an incumbent on either side).

  • New Hampshire is not a winner-take-all proposition. The delgates will be split at least three ways, with a bulk being divided almost equally between Senators Obama and Clinton.

NEXT UP: Michigan Primary, January 15th, zero delegates*

ON DECK: Nevada Caucus, January 19th, 30 delegates.

IN THE HOLE: South Carolina, January 26th, 54 delegates.

LOOKING AHEAD: 25 days until Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th) where 2075 delegates will be awarded. New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts hold primaries.

*Note: Michigan and Florida moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday without approval from the DNC and were stripped of their delegates.

1 comment:

slinger said...

Keep up the good work Tony.... your efforts will pay off.