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Thursday, February 21, 2008

Inevitable?

Benjamin Franklin once said, in this world nothing is certain but death and taxes. Sure, the absence of my musings here could have been attributed to the former. Actually, it was mostly due to the latter, and I am happy to report that my taxes are done. There doesn't seem to be any certainty in the Democratic nomination process, although one candidate has built some incredible momentum.

Tuesday's resounding victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii appeared to have given Senator Obama unstoppable momentum heading into the March 4th primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. He has now won 10 contests in a row, winning Wisconsin by 17-points, his smallest margin of victory yet. I certainly would never count Senator Clinton out until one candidate reaches the magic number or until she says she's out, but it will be an uphill climb for her.

The Clinton campaign has acknowledged that Texas and/or Ohio are must wins. The pundits believe that she must win big in both places to continue on, and the numbers show that the Senator from New York nees to win 55% of all remaining delegates to be the nominee.

Wisconsin was another state that Senator Obama won where traditionally, the demographics favored Senator Clinton. Exit polling showed every age group, except those over 65, voting for Obama. All women split 50/50 between the candidates, a huge shift. Poll data shows Latino voters shifting with the momentum as well, which could spell trouble in Texas for Clinton. The other "x-factor" in Texas is Republicans. With Senator McCain the presumptive nominee, will Republicans show up at the open Democratic primary to vote for Senator Obama? In Wisconsin, Republicans made up 10% of the voters and 75% of them voted for Senator Obama.

In the mean time, look for more negative advertising from the Clinton campaign, as desperate times call for desperate measures. Let's hope this process ends in the near term so we can unify behind the labor friendly candidate and get on with the process of healing this great country of ours.

In case you're still on the fence or concerned about the Senator's experience, here is Barack Obama's Blueprint for Change.

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